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Now available in paperback, from the bestselling author of The Great Depression Ahead, a book that continues to show readers how to weather the storm in these tough economic times by cautioning against the misguided beliefs that lead to bad investment decisions.
With incisive critical ana lysis and historical examples, The Great Crash Ahead lays bare the traditional assumptions of economics, outlining why the next financial crash and crisis is inevitable, and just around the corner— coming between mid-2012 and early 2015. Widely respected in the financial world for his accurate forecasts, Harry S. Dent, Jr., shows that the government doesn’t drive our economy, consumers and businesses do; that the Fed does not create most of the money in our economy, the private banking system does. This necessary and illuminating book gives very clear strategies for prospering in the challenging decade ahead . . . a world turned upside down.
- Sales Rank: #105281 in Books
- Brand: Dent, Harry S., Jr./ Johnson, Rodney (CON)
- Published on: 2012-09-11
- Released on: 2012-09-11
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.37" h x 1.00" w x 5.50" l, .70 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 368 pages
Most helpful customer reviews
118 of 125 people found the following review helpful.
As a long-term reader of Harry Dent
By ST2192
In 1994 I read Harry Dent's "Great Boom Ahead" and it was extraordinarily prescient... he foresaw the demographics-based boom of the late 90s and early 2000s as well as our current economic depression. I went on to buy all his other books and they provide invaluable predictions on demographic-based economic conditions all over the world and over the next few decades.
Harry Dent also provides valuable insights into emerging technologies and business processes.
As long as you follow him on those areas, you will do fine.
But... if you follow his investment advice on equities, inflation and commodities you WILL lose a lot of money (his predictions on stock market valuations were awful as was the performance of his various financial funds).
131 of 142 people found the following review helpful.
Solid Overview - Excellent Research. Why It's Worth Your Time to Read and Share
By AmazonJavaJunki
Inflation versus Deflation. It's one of the most hotly contested topics in economic and financial circles. As a college instructor and business writer, there are a few authors that I always make a point of reading...Dent is one of them in part because of his deflationary position. He is an unapologetic, hard-core deflationist...I'm not, but there is a great deal of value in keeping an open mind and considering all points of view.
However, Dent is also a superb researcher with a focus/concentration upon demographic research which is worth the time and effort to read in its own right. Unlike many authors that fail to provide sufficient references or resources for their claims (ie, opinions), Dent takes great pain to substantiate all conclusions with research, data, articles and graphics while remaining reader-friendly and engaging.
The first section of the book covers basic economic and fiscal theory, history and the expected "how we got here"...depending upon your school of thought, you may agree or disagree with some of the assumptions but the data is equally fresh and relevant. Dent does a stellar job with this section and really goes above and beyond the same old stale data to truly paint a picture of the madness gripping both this nation and the globe.
Next, the book covers what "to do" and what "not to do" with an emphasis on small business owners rather than merely individual investors. Both are included which is a nice change from solely a personal finance perspective.
Finally, there are pages upon pages of references for those interested in pursuing additional readers...as well as the "sales pitches". Now, as for the "sales pitches"...these are a modern irritation which I've never quite learned to live with. There are sporadic insertions inviting the reader to sign-up for a free webinar, newsletter or other throughout the book with several pages of pitches at the end of the book. Aside from that, the authors are fairly restrained and do not skimp on information nor require the reader to participate in sales to access "the meat" of the issue.
As for topics covered...the author(s) make some compelling points regarding deflation at least in the short-term then relate how various investments will perform in light of these assumptions. Real estate, bonds, the stock market at large, foreign investments, small business ownership, multiple streams of income etc are each reviewed. Special emphasis is placed upon retirement planning as well as various other demographic cohorts and associated spending patterns. An excellent overview of government retirement obligations and implications on retirees, future taxation, benefits etc is a "must read" for everyone!
All in all, a well researched book that is well worth the time and effort to read even if you do not agree fully with some of the basic assumptions (ie, rationality for example) or suggested course of action.
95 of 105 people found the following review helpful.
Must read to understand current crisis -- and prepare for it
By Richard Stooker
The Great Crash is Harry Dent's best book, and I strongly recommend it.
Economic doomsaying is nothing new. Howard Ruff and others sold a lot of books in the 1970s advising people to buy gold and silver to survive the "certain" financial disaster that never happened.
And many others now are predicting either hyperinflation or deflation will soon destroy the world's economy.
Dent is different because he doesn't just rail against excess government spending like an Old Testament prophet, but points out a dimension of society ignored by most economists: demographics.
In the late 1980s, while the perennial Chicken Littles were claiming the sky would fall because of the size of the government's budget then, Dent said the 1990s and 2000s would be an economic boom time. Why? Because the baby boomer generation would be entering its greatest earning and spending years.
He also pointed out (yes, 20 years ago) that this would end around 2010 or so, and there'd be a crash, a depression that would probably dwarf the 1930s lasting until around 2024.
We've lived through the boom, and now we're entering the crash, so that's what this book is about.
The theme of this book is that the huge amount of debt we've created at all levels from you and me to all developed country governments -- combined with the aging of the baby boomers and the consequent change in their spending and investing patterns -- is going to slow the world's economic growth for years to come.
In fact, it's going to create a situation that frightens the powers that be --justifiably -- far more than inflation:
Deflation.
Much of the book is taken up with examining the history of the crisis. The government and personal debt that so frightened people in the 1970s is, interestingly, a tiny blip compared to current levels of debt.
Thanks to the financial crisis as individuals we have less debt than in 2008, but still far too much -- especially mortgages on houses that aren't worth what we paid for them. Companies owe too much. State and local governments owe too much. The federal government owes too much. (Not even counting the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare). China and Japan owe too much. And, we've learned recently, many European countries owe too much.
There's no way we're going to pay off the trillions of dollars owed around the world.
Much of it will have to written off. That's the purpose of depressions -- to wring excess debt out of the system, so we can get on with building the next boom time.
But because it's painful, politicians are determined to avoid it. That's why the chairman of the US Federal Reserve System is working overtime to create new dollars, to keep the current system running.
Many current financial doomsayers look at how the government is running the printing presses overtime and are predicting runaway inflation.
Dent says you can't force 60 year old boomers to stop saving for retirement and buy new cars, houses and gadgets -- especially when they're afraid of losing their jobs.
Therefore, once the Fed's extraordinary efforts to keep the economy going fail (and that appears to have started), the crash is going to be deflationary.
That means continued high unemployment, lower prices in general, a collapse in the price of gold, and (wonder of wonders), higher interest rates leading to . . . (drumroll!) . . . a strong US dollar.
Given the current state of the euro (and the determination of Japan's central bank to keep the yen from going up in value), that doesn't sound quite as crazy now as it would have last year.
Dent gives advice on surviving (and profiting from) the crash that is so different than what you usually hear (and ironic given the S&P's recent revaluation of the US government's credit rating) that not everybody will agree with it.
This is a book many will argue with. However, you can't beat Dent on the facts. He backs up everything he says.
You can argue his interpretation, and his conclusion that we're in for a period of deflation -- while most are telling you to buy gold to hedge against hyperinflation.
The foundation of investment risk management is diversification. Placing your "bets" entirely on either hyperinflation or deflation risks the other happening (or, incredible as it seems, neither -- the world's economy has been muddling along for decades, so maybe it will somehow continue to do so), so I stand by my advise in Bring on the Crash! A 3-Step Practical Survival Guide: Prepare for Economic Collapse and Come Out Wealthier to invest in things that people need whether the economy and the markets are up or down.
(Hint: people need food and energy to survive, but NOT gold.)
The problem with predicting the future is that things happen you don't predict. I wouldn't use Dent's projections to "trade" the stock market. He has a poor short-term record. He predicted that before this crash came, the stock market would experience a boom that would dwarf the late 1990s. We know that never materialized.
But he has a great long-term, "big picture" record. Before you sell all your stocks and bonds to buy gold, you need to read his arguments for deflation.
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